By Quentin Wray
Mike Godwin coined Godwin’s Law on Usenet (the text-based forums that preceded the web, where early internet adopters went to argue with strangers) in 1990. His observation was simple: as any online discussion grows longer the probability of a Hitler comparison approaches 1. It doesn’t matter what the thread started about, with enough time and enough participants, Hitler and the Nazis will enter the room.
In mathematical terms:
Godwin wasn’t trying to make talking about Hitler off-limits. He said the comparison was fine if the conversation genuinely warranted it. You just had to earn it.
Reaching for the most catastrophic reference in modern history when you’re arguing about gun control (“You know who else banned personal weapons? Hitler.”), abortion (“Worse than Nazi death camps.”), animal rights (“You know who else loved animals and was a vegetarian? Hitler.”), or economic policy (“You know that they were called the National Socialists right?”).
I’m now proposing Wray’s Law of Vaccine Tangents to add to the canon of Internet law.
On social media and in the comments, regardless of the original topic, the probability of the conversation becoming about vaccine injuries and adverse effects rapidly approaches 1.
Or:
where .
Godwin’s Law at least required a thread to develop. There was an arc from reasonable discussion to mild disagreement to escalating frustration to Hitler.
Wray’s Law has no such arc, hence the acceleration kicker. Footballer pulls up with cramp. Celebrity mentions fatigue. Pilot calls in sick. Vaccines!!!
The conclusion gets written before the news.
(* Full disclosure – I haven’t done anything remotely mathematical since A Level and I got AI to translate the words into these representations. I have no idea if this is a good way of doing it. Let me know if I’m wrong.)
Good law needs precedent. And there is plenty.
The top 10, identified on klangable.com, include:
- Godwin’s Law
“As a Usenet discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1.” It has now been expanded to include all web discussions. - Poe’s Law
“Without a winking smiley or other blatant display of humour, it is impossible to create a parody of fundamentalism that someone won’t mistake for the real thing.” - Rule 34
“If it exists, there is porn of it.” See also Rule 35: “If no such porn exists, it will be made.” - Skitt’s Law(s)
“Any post correcting an error in another post will contain at least one error itself” or “The likelihood of an error in a post is directly proportional to the embarrassment it will cause the poster.” - Scopie’s Law
“In any discussion involving science or medicine, citing Whale.to as a credible source loses the argument immediately, and gets you laughed out of the room.” - Danth’s Law (also Parker’s Law)
“If you have to insist that you’ve won an internet argument, you’ve probably lost badly.” - Pommer’s Law
“A person’s mind can be changed by reading information on the internet. The nature of this change will be from having no opinion to having a wrong opinion.” - DeMyer’s Second Law
“Anyone who posts an argument on the internet which is largely quotations can be very safely ignored, and is deemed to have lost the argument before it has begun.” - Cohen’s Law
“Whoever resorts to the argument that ‘whoever resorts to the argument that… …has automatically lost the debate’ has automatically lost the debate.” - The Law of Exclamation
“The more exclamation points used in an email (or other posting), the more likely it is a complete lie. This is also true for excessive capital letters.”
What makes Wray’s Law different is the near universality of the trigger. You don’t need anything more than a piece of news and a comment section.
Discredited claims refuse to die because they’re emotionally sticky and socially reinforced.
Research published by the American Psychological Association in 2023 found that people endorse conspiracy theories due to a combination of personality traits and motivations, and that social identity motives and perceived social threats are stronger drivers than simple need for closure or control.
The research explicitly notes that belief is reinforced through social relationships and identity and explains why some people gravitate towards, and hang on so tightly to, conspiracy theories and bogus claims.
Before you accuse the APA of being a Big Pharma/Big Defence/Big State shill, remember that it is the leading scientific organization for psychology in the United States with over 157,000 members.
There are real, ongoing scientific debates about vaccine safety, but this law is not about those. It’s about the people who read a story about a 74-year-old dying of a stroke and type, without pausing or irony, “Sudden and unexpected 🤔 wonder what changed.”
This does the same damage Godwin identified: it doesn’t elevate the conversation, it ends it. Worse, it makes it harder to have the legitimate version of the same discussion, which is a real loss.
Godwin’s Law took years to name. You can verify this one in a few minutes on any health news comment section. I’m open to challenges.
But the Law will be applied.